Month: October 2014

2015 WFTDA Playoff Rankings – Week 17

Welcome back to a very special edition of the 2015 WFTDA Playoff Rankings.  Today I am adding a new feature that should help assist you with your upcoming bout scheduling.  I have added a column that shows what the difference is between my rankings (used via results posted on Flattrackstats.com and the released WFTDA Rankings) and the most recent WFTDA Rankings.  While WFTDA uses a whole years worth of bouts, mine only includes those since July 1st.  With that, you may not want to play a team that is ranked significantly higher in my rankings than their WFTDA ranking.  In all likelihood this means that they have been playing much better since July 1st than they were prior to July 1st.  If that is true, it means that you will not be getting a true bang for your buck while facing them.  A quick example, Dallas is currently ranked 24th in my rankings after beating DC 293-108 and losing a close 190-160 against Houston in early August.  Is Dallas really the 24th best team in the world right now, probably not.  But they are a lot closer to the 24th ranking I show than the 63rd ranking that WFTDA currently has them at.  This would be a bad time to play them until more of their bouts fall off.

On the flip side, now may be a great time to play DC.  I have them ranked 64th this week, while WFTDA has them at 49th.  For perspective, 49th has a current bout weight of 1.85, but 64th has a bout weight of 1.66.  That could make for a huge difference.  If you were to beat DC 175-125 at their current ranking it would earn your team 323.75 points, but beating them at 64th is only worth 290.50.  That may not seem like much, but if you are close to making it to playoffs or in a battle for one of the important seeding positions every point can matter.  For more in depth questions please feel free to reach out to me.

On to the rankings.  No changes in the top 53 this week, but I fully expect that to change after this weekend.  Remember, a positive number in the “Change From WFTDA” means a team may be under-ranked according to WFTDA and you may be leaving points on the table by playing them now, a negative number means that they may be over-ranked currently by WFTDA and this could be a good chance to go get some extra points.

Rank Team Score Weekly Change Change from WFTDA
1 Gotham 698.90 0 0
2 Rose City 610.36 0 0
3 Bay Area 582.88 0 0
4 Windy City 508.54 0 8
5 Denver 497.93 0 3
6 Philly 490.68 0 4
7 Angel City 484.32 0 2
8 Texas 479.97 0 -3
9 Victoria 464.91 0 -5
10 Minnesota 463.52 0 -3
11 London 460.80 0 -5
12 Rocky Mtn 448.88 0 -1
13 Atlanta 444.47 0 0
14 Tampa 429.31 0 5
15 Jacksonville 428.62 0 0
16 Rat City 397.30 0 0
17 Montreal 384.15 0 0
18 Charm City 377.31 0 -4
19 Terminal City 370.90 0 -1
20 Arch Rival 363.41 0 1
21 Steel City 356.48 0 7
22 Madison 347.94 0 3
23 Detroit 338.25 0 16
24 Dallas 334.42 0 39
25 Ohio 329.53 0 -3
26 Boston 329.13 0 -2
27 Arizona 314.28 0 5
28 St. Chux 302.69 0 7
29 Toronto 291.98 0 -2
30 Jet City 291.85 0 8
31 Nashville 290.03 0 -2
32 Queen City 286.38 0 1
33 Santa Cruz 285.11 0 -10
34 Wasatch 284.81 0 -3
35 Treasure Valley 280.18 0 30
36 Naptown 278.40 0 -10
37 Des Moines 276.46 0 39
38 No Coast 275.48 0 -4
39 Houston 272.40 0 3
40 SoCal 271.84 0 3
41 Sin City 268.31 0 9
42 Rideau Valley 267.68 0 -6
43 Kansas City 266.99 0 4
44 Tri-City 266.90 0 0
45 Bear City 265.17 0 0
46 Chicago Outfit 260.07 0 0
47 Calgary 260.06 0 10
48 Demolition City 247.17 0 -11
49 Columbia 247.02 0 -9
50 OK Victory 244.65 0 -20
51 Omaha 241.90 0 11
52 Sac City 239.67 0 32
53 Suburbia 236.26 0 5
54 Charlottesville 235.88 5 25
55 New Hampshire 234.68 -1 -14
56 Sacred City 231.92 -1 -3
57 Brewcity 225.02 -1 -9
58 Boulder County 224.27 -1 1
59 Ithaca 221.14 -1 9
60 Charlotte 217.81 0 30
61 Tucson 215.96 0 0
62 Grand Raggidy 215.12 0 -8
63 Gold Coast 211.92 0 -11
64 DC 210.18 0 -15
65 Old Capitol 207.96 0 -9
66 Alamo City 203.64 0 28
67 Killamazoo 201.75 0 -12
68 Brandywine 198.70 0 -2
69 Blue Ridge 198.37 0 -18
70 Connecticut 195.20 0 31
71 Big Easy 187.75 1 -7
72 North Star 185.86 1 5
73 Garden State 184.57 1 18
74 Quad City 183.65 -3 11
75 Twin City 175.57 0 7
76 Cincinnati 172.72 0 20
77 South Bend 165.90 0 116
78 Rage City 163.95 0 10
79 Ann Arbor 161.37 0 21
80 Emerald City 157.39 1 13
81 San Fernando 156.58 1 35
82 Cape Fear 154.68 1 52
83 NEO 154.66 1 3
84 Carolina 148.40 -4 14
85 Green Mt 147.70 0 -15
86 Pikes Peak 147.59 0 6
87 Lansing 143.90 8 30
88 Cen-Tex 143.47 -1 85
89 Diamond Divas 143.35 -1 #N/A
90 Lowcountry 142.60 -1 30
91 Salisbury 141.90 -1 13
92 Richland County 141.84 -1 71
93 Cherry City 141.47 -1 66
94 Sioux City 139.02 -1 9
95 Vette City 138.12 -1 17
96 Long Island 134.13 *NEW* 73
97 West Texas 131.12 -1 97
98 Derby City 129.60 -1 33
99 Magnolia 129.42 -1 29
100 Tallahassee 128.72 -1 39

As you can see a lot of teams near the bottom are not currently ranked in these positions by WFTDA.  This isn’t that surprising as we are early in the season and there will be a lot of movement, especially when we are talking below teams with an average below 150 points as so many of them are just so close in averages.  As the season goes along my rankings and WFTDA’s should be getting closer and closer so these will come down.  But as some free advice, here are 5 teams I would not schedule now and 5 that may be looking like a good opportunity.

5 To Schedule (in order of Derby Math Rankings):

  1. #48 Demolition City
  2. #50 OK Victory
  3. #55 New Hampshire
  4. #64 DC
  5. #69 Blue Ridge

5 To Avoid:

  1. #23 Detroit
  2. #24 Dallas
  3. #35 Treasure Valley
  4. #37 Des Moines
  5. #52 Sac City

And in final news, Derby Math is actually getting recognized by the Google Search Engine.  By entering the term “derbymath” I am now showing as the 5th returned website.  That is very cool and thank you all very much for the continued support.

Advertisements

2015 WFTDA Playoff Rankings – Week 16

Oh WFTDA, you sneaky little buggers you.  As most of you have heard by now, but in case you haven’t, with the release of the October 5th rankings release WFTDA also announced the removal of the playoff modifier.  WOOHOO!!!!  As you know I was very much against the modifier and by WFTDA removing it I feel not only is the correct move, but also shows WFTDA’s willingness to make changes that are necessary.  I had highlighted in the past just how much of an impact the modifier made, but tonight will be the last time as I release two rankings.  The first will be the standard week to week rankings with the second showing the true rankings as they are now that the playoff modifier has been removed.

While most of the derby world was focusing on MRDA’s this weekend, there were two very significant early bouts that could have playoff implications going on in WFTDA.  The first was the opening bouts for Sac City and Sacred City in their 2015 Playoff campaigns.  Sacred City took the win 203-162, but it was Sac City who took the points.  That is right, due to Sac City’s large drop down for the October 5th release they came into this bout only ranked 84th compared to Sacred City’s 53rd.  So even by losing it was Sac City who earned more WFTDA points in this match-up.  The teams slot in 58th and 59th in the weekly rankings, which most thought would have been enough to be the top new teams this week, but not the case.

That honor belongs to the Des Moines Derby Dames.  By knocking off the Quad City Rollers by a 201-100 margin, Des Moines gained enough points to slot into 50th before the playoff modifiers were removed.  That is a very impressive start for a team that only came in 76th in the October 5th release.  This tells me that we are going to be in for a very exciting battle to the end for the bottom of D1 thru D2 Playoffs (assuming WFTDA doesn’t change the format, which in my opinion they should but that is a topic for another day).

So here is how the rankings looked this week with the playoff modifiers in place.

Rank Team Score Weekly Change
1 Gotham 860.60 0
2 Rose City 719.44 0
3 Bay Area 665.77 0
4 Victoria 627.62 0
5 Philly 620.74 0
6 Windy City 616.56 0
7 London 603.64 0
8 Texas 603.28 0
9 Denver 598.14 0
10 Angel City 582.01 0
11 Rocky Mtn 549.56 0
12 Tampa 544.14 0
13 Jacksonville 542.55 0
14 Atlanta 530.47 0
15 Minnesota 519.91 0
16 Rat City 466.79 0
17 Montreal 448.89 0
18 Terminal City 441.63 0
19 Arch Rival 440.22 0
20 Charm City 428.52 0
21 Madison 420.65 0
22 Boston 417.27 0
23 Steel City 409.59 0
24 Arizona 398.02 0
25 St. Chux 378.36 0
26 Detroit 377.90 0
27 Ohio 376.37 0
28 Santa Cruz 360.06 0
29 Wasatch 346.92 0
30 Jet City 346.09 0
31 Toronto 341.59 0
32 Nashville 339.92 0
33 SoCal 339.81 0
34 Dallas 334.42 0
35 Naptown 332.29 0
36 Treasure Valley 327.65 0
37 Bear City 325.64 0
38 No Coast 321.60 0
39 Queen City 321.24 0
40 Sin City 314.52 0
41 Tri-City 313.19 0
42 Kansas City 307.91 0
43 Rideau Valley 302.76 0
44 Houston 298.16 0
45 Columbia 295.50 0
46 New Hampshire 293.34 0
47 OK Victory 285.68 0
48 Chicago Outfit 279.93 0
49 Omaha 278.18 0
50 Des Moines 276.46 *NEW*
51 Demolition City 271.03 -1
52 Boulder County 264.00 -1
53 Calgary 260.06 -1
54 Tucson 256.56 0
55 Suburbia 256.26 -2
56 Brewcity 254.51 -1
57 Gold Coast 248.44 -1
58 Sac City 239.67 *NEW*
59 Sacred City 231.92 *NEW*
60 Grand Raggidy 231.37 4
61 Brandywine 231.17 -4
62 DC 228.20 -4
63 Blue Ridge 222.87 -4
64 Big Easy 221.17 -4
65 Ithaca 221.14 -4
66 Charlottesville 219.12 -4
67 Charlotte 217.81 -4
68 Old Capitol 207.96 -3
69 Alamo City 203.64 -2
70 Killamazoo 201.75 -1
71 Connecticut 195.20 -3
72 Quad City 189.65 -6
73 North Star 185.86 -3
74 Garden State 184.57 *NEW*
75 Twin City 175.57 -4
76 Cincinnati 172.72 -4
77 South Bend 165.90 -4
78 Rage City 163.95 -3
79 Ann Arbor 161.37 0
80 Carolina 160.34 -6
81 Emerald City 157.39 -5
82 San Fernando 156.58 -5
83 Cape Fear 154.68 -3
84 NEO 154.66 -6
85 Green Mt 147.70 -4
86 Pikes Peak 147.59 -4
87 Cen-Tex 143.47 3
88 Diamond Divas 143.35 -5
89 Lowcountry 142.60 -5
90 Salisbury 141.90 -3
91 Richland County 141.84 -6
92 Cherry City 141.47 -6
93 Sioux City 139.02 -5
94 Vette City 138.12 -5
95 Lansing 134.45 -4
96 West Texas 131.12 -4
97 Derby City 129.60 -4
98 Magnolia 129.42 -4
99 Tallahassee 128.72 -4
100 Burning River 128.21 -4

But now on to how things look with the playoff modifier being removed.  Wow did things change.  We have teams all over the place with both Dallas and Des Moines jumping all the way in to the Top 40.  We then also have Ithaca, Charlottesville, and Charlotte jumping all the way into the Top 60.  But most importantly, everything got tightened up substationally.  It should make for a great season.

Rank Team Score Playoff Modifier Change
1 Gotham 698.90 0
2 Rose City 610.36 0
3 Bay Area 582.88 0
4 Windy City 508.54 2
5 Denver 497.93 4
6 Philly 490.68 -1
7 Angel City 484.32 3
8 Texas 479.97 0
9 Victoria 464.91 -5
10 Minnesota 463.52 5
11 London 460.80 -4
12 Rocky Mtn 448.88 -1
13 Atlanta 444.47 1
14 Tampa 429.31 -2
15 Jacksonville 428.62 -2
16 Rat City 397.30 0
17 Montreal 384.15 0
18 Charm City 377.31 2
19 Terminal City 370.90 -1
20 Arch Rival 363.41 -1
21 Steel City 356.48 2
22 Madison 347.94 -1
23 Detroit 338.25 3
24 Dallas 334.42 10
25 Ohio 329.53 2
26 Boston 329.13 -4
27 Arizona 314.28 -3
28 St. Chux 302.69 -3
29 Toronto 291.98 2
30 Jet City 291.85 0
31 Nashville 290.03 1
32 Queen City 286.38 7
33 Santa Cruz 285.11 -5
34 Wasatch 284.81 -5
35 Treasure Valley 280.18 1
36 Naptown 278.40 -1
37 Des Moines 276.46 13
38 No Coast 275.48 0
39 Houston 272.40 5
40 SoCal 271.84 -7
41 Sin City 268.31 -1
42 Rideau Valley 267.68 1
43 Kansas City 266.99 -1
44 Tri-City 266.90 -3
45 Bear City 265.17 -8
46 Chicago Outfit 260.07 2
47 Calgary 260.06 6
48 Demolition City 247.17 3
49 Columbia 247.02 -4
50 OK Victory 244.65 -3
51 Omaha 241.90 -2
52 Sac City 239.67 6
53 Suburbia 236.26 2
54 New Hampshire 234.68 -8
55 Sacred City 231.92 4
56 Brewcity 225.02 0
57 Boulder County 224.27 -5
58 Ithaca 221.14 7
59 Charlottesville 219.12 7
60 Charlotte 217.81 7
61 Tucson 215.96 -7
62 Grand Raggidy 215.12 -2
63 Gold Coast 211.92 -6
64 DC 210.18 -2
65 Old Capitol 207.96 3
66 Alamo City 203.64 3
67 Killamazoo 201.75 3
68 Brandywine 198.70 -7
69 Blue Ridge 198.37 -6
70 Connecticut 195.20 1
71 Quad City 189.65 1
72 Big Easy 187.75 -8
73 North Star 185.86 0
74 Garden State 184.57 0
75 Twin City 175.57 0
76 Cincinnati 172.72 0
77 South Bend 165.90 0
78 Rage City 163.95 0
79 Ann Arbor 161.37 0
80 Carolina 160.34 0
81 Emerald City 157.39 0
82 San Fernando 156.58 0
83 Cape Fear 154.68 0
84 NEO 154.66 0
85 Green Mt 147.70 0
86 Pikes Peak 147.59 0
87 Cen-Tex 143.47 0
88 Diamond Divas 143.35 0
89 Lowcountry 142.60 0
90 Salisbury 141.90 0
91 Richland County 141.84 0
92 Cherry City 141.47 0
93 Sioux City 139.02 0
94 Vette City 138.12 0
95 Lansing 134.45 0
96 West Texas 131.12 0
97 Derby City 129.60 0
98 Magnolia 129.42 0
99 Tallahassee 128.72 0
100 Burning River 128.21 0

Derby’s Money Problems: Is Roller Derby Entertaining? – Part 1

14446203022_71b0c59df5_z(1)

Special thank to Jim Dier and Brewcity Battlestars Head Coach/WFTDA Official Machete Holiday for that reaction, and I expect that upon reading the title that is the look on most of your faces as well.  But, let us all take a deep breathe and put the pitchforks down for a minute and let me explain myself a little bit.  Can we all just admit that Derby has some problems and needs to find a way to become more financially stable and to grow a fan base that will help support it?  Just how long can the same people keep funding the sport without huge amounts of new blood coming in?  I’m not embarking on this series of blogs (yes there will be more than one addressing this topic) just to enrage people or to make people think that I am just putting Derby down.  I am doing this to simply continue, or begin, this discussion.  As we speak there are many top level teams looking for major funding help.  VRDL spent $33,000 on playoff airfare alone.  Rat City is looking for $45,000 to help funding to keep their home.  There are so many leagues out there with financial issues and discussions need to be open and all ideas should be discussed.  As part of this series I will address many different issues, but for this post I am going to focus exclusively on if derby bouts are entertaining.

I believe that I represent a demographic of huge opportunity for Roller Derby, so let me give you a little more background on myself.  I am a sports fanatic to the extreme.  I will watch pretty much any sport, as long as it is competitive and entertaining.  The NFL is the #1 sport in America for many reasons, but it can’t be ignored that anyone can win on “any given Sunday.”  Yes that is so cliche, but it is so true.  This past weekend saw 6 our of 15 games end with a margin of a touchdown or less, the week before it was 8 of 15.  For non-football fans, that means that all those games were the margin of one play.  Internationally, soccer/futbol is the #1 sport.  It is very different in the scoring, but 1 mistake can immediately turn a 1-0 game into a 1-1 game.  What I am getting at is that I would watch darts on TV if it was competitive, I have actually done this by the way.  There are thousands/millions of people like me who just love competition and will pay good money to see people compete.  Brewcity’s home season ended last year with a Championship Bout that went into OT, it was the most edge of the seat Derby I had ever witnessed and there was no way that a first time Derby viewer didn’t immediately become a fan.  I don’t expect that every time I view a bout, but competitive bouts would go a very long way.

And that brings me to my main point.  From July 1st thru October 12th I have tracked 267 WFTDA bouts from 189 teams.  This issue is a global issue and I believe we need to have this discussion with all WFTDA teams in mind, not just D1 or D2 or D3, but all of WFTDA.  That is large enough of a sample size that I firmly believe that the data and chart I’m about to show you is very credible.  Here is percentage breakdown of the final score margin of those bouts.

Points Margin Victory

What I have done is look at the final points margin and broken it into 6 categories that I felt represented good spreads in the bouts.  Most of us will agree that bouts with a spread under 50 are entertaining, I think we can all agree that bouts in which the final margin of victory is over 100 is usually not the most exciting bout.  Again, I am viewing this as a fan of sport.  Fans are the people who pay money to watch and be entertained.  To this point in the season over 45% of all WFTDA bouts have finished with margins of greater than 100, over 1 in 4 total bouts ended with margins over 150.  Are casual fans going to keep coming back and paying money for bouts in which the final margin was that high?  In all likelihood many of those bouts were over at halftime, how many of those fans just leave and never come back?

This is just the start of the discussion, over the next few weeks I will bring forth ideas that I believe could help raise the entertainment/excitement of Derby bouts.  Next up in this series I am going to look to see if a 60 minute bout is really necessary.  I will as always focus on the math behind my analysis, but I will also use my degree in Fitness Management to discuss the effects of a 60 minute bout.  Thank you all for your support and I hope this post just makes you think, not be mad.  I’m not bashing Derby or suggesting I have all the answers, my ultimate goal is to just help keep the conversation going.  Derby is not the 16 teams competing in Nashville, or the 60 teams that took part in the WFTDA playoffs, heck Derby is not even just WFTDA.  For all that Derby is, admitting there are problems and being open to having discussions around those problems is the only way to continually move forward as a sport.

2015 WFTDA Playoff Rankings – Week 15

Welcome back to another exciting week of the (unofficial) 2015 WFTDA Playoff Rankings.  It was a rather slow week with only 10 sanctioned bouts according to FTS, but that doesn’t mean we didn’t see a little movement in the rankings.  The only movement in the Top 40 was Detroit using their thrashings over Killamazoo and Grand Raggidy to overtake Santa Cruz for #27.  (Note: After doing my complete audit of the 60 playoff teams i noticed that i originally had credited Santa Cruz with a 1.35 modifier for all of their playoff bouts, that has been fixed and they are now slotted correctly at #28).  On the flip side of those results, Killamazoo and Grand Raggidy both fell out of the Top 60.  There is plenty of time left in the season to get back into the D2 Playoff spots, but both will have some work to do.

We do welcome Blue Ridge back into the Top 60 after their incredibly rough D1 Playoffs.  They have a long way to get back to D1 (their average is currently 87 points below 40th place), but it all starts with one bout and taking 290.90 points from their victory against Dutchland is a start.  We do welcome Rage City to the Top 100 this week and also need to mention the rise of San Ferndando all the way up #77.  There must be something in that California water as they are just loaded with quality teams (note: the rankings do not even include Sacred City or Sac City as neither of them have had a 2015 qualifying bout yet).  Stay tuned as next week I will release not only the Week 16 rankings, but show how removing the playoff modifier would affect the entire Top 100.

Rank Team Score Weekly Change
1 Gotham 860.60 0
2 Rose City 719.44 0
3 Bay Area 665.77 0
4 Victoria 627.62 0
5 Philly 620.74 0
6 Windy City 616.67 0
7 London 603.64 0
8 Texas 603.28 0
9 Denver 598.14 0
10 Angel City 582.01 0
11 Rocky Mtn 549.56 0
12 Tampa 544.14 0
13 Jacksonville 542.55 0
14 Atlanta 530.47 0
15 Minnesota 519.91 0
16 Rat City 466.79 0
17 Montreal 448.89 0
18 Terminal City 441.63 0
19 Arch Rival 440.22 0
20 Charm City 428.52 0
21 Madison 420.65 0
22 Boston 417.27 0
23 Steel City 409.59 0
24 Arizona 398.02 0
25 St. Chux 378.36 0
26 Ohio 376.37 0
27 Detroit 366.01 1
28 Santa Cruz 360.06 -1
29 Wasatch 346.92 0
30 Jet City 346.09 0
31 Toronto 341.59 0
32 Nashville 339.92 0
33 SoCal 339.81 0
34 Dallas 334.42 0
35 Naptown 332.29 0
36 Treasure Valley 327.65 0
37 Bear City 325.64 0
38 No Coast 321.60 0
39 Sin City 314.52 0
40 Tri-City 313.19 0
41 Kansas City 307.91 0
42 Rideau Valley 302.76 0
43 Queen City 298.37 0
44 Houston 298.16 0
45 Columbia 295.50 0
46 New Hampshire 293.34 0
47 OK Victory 285.68 0
48 Chicago Outfit 279.93 0
49 Omaha 278.18 0
50 Demolition City 271.03 0
51 Boulder County 264.00 0
52 Calgary 260.06 0
53 Suburbia 256.82 0
54 Tucson 256.56 0
55 Brewcity 254.51 0
56 Gold Coast 248.44 0
57 Brandywine 231.17 2
58 DC 228.20 2
59 Blue Ridge 226.38 6
60 Big Easy 221.17 1
61 Ithaca 221.14 1
62 Charlottesville 219.12 1
63 Charlotte 217.81 1
64 Grand Raggidy 212.50 -7
65 Old Capitol 207.96 1
66 Quad City 204.69 1
67 Alamo City 203.64 1
68 Connecticut 195.20 1
69 Killamazoo 194.59 -11
70 North Star 185.86 0
71 Twin City 175.57 0
72 Cincinnati 172.72 0
73 South Bend 165.90 1
74 Carolina 160.34 1
75 Rage City 158.83 *NEW*
76 Emerald City 157.39 0
77 San Fernando 155.29 12
78 NEO 154.66 -1
79 Ann Arbor 149.00 -1
80 Cape Fear 147.71 -7
81 Green Mt 147.70 -2
82 Pikes Peak 147.59 -2
83 Diamond Divas 143.35 -1
84 Lowcountry 142.60 -1
85 Richland County 141.84 -1
86 Cherry City 141.47 -1
87 Salisbury 139.70 -1
88 Sioux City 139.02 -1
89 Vette City 138.12 -1
90 Cen-Tex 134.69 10
91 Lansing 134.45 -1
92 West Texas 131.12 -1
93 Derby City 129.60 -1
94 Magnolia 129.42 -1
95 Tallahassee 128.72 -1
96 Burning River 128.21 -1
97 Ft. Myers 124.01 -1
98 Crossroads City 122.13 -1
99 Dutchland 120.03 -18
100 Hellions 119.92 -2

Non-Playoff Modifier Playoff Rankings

So as promised, here we are with the 2014 Non-Playoff Modifier Playoff Rankings.  As I had predicted, not much actual movement among the teams, especially in the Top 30.  In fact we have to go all the way down to #35 to find Treasure Valley as the first team that had a move of more than 2 spots.  In total only 6 of the 60 teams saw place movements of more than 2 spots (Omaha up 4, Chicago Outfit up 3, Columbia down 4, Kansas City down 3 and No Coast down 3).  Below you will find the rankings, the non-playoff modifier average, the difference from the actual rankings, the total playoff modifier points earned, and the playoff modifier points earned per bout.

Non-Playoff Modifier Rank Team Playoff Finish Non-Playoff Modifier Average Rank Difference Total Playoff Modifier Points Earned Playoff Modifier Points per Bout
1 Bay Area 1-SLC 641.16 673.20 224.40
2 Rose City 1-Charleston 623.33 654.51 218.17
3 Gotham 1-Sacramento 616.02 646.74 215.58
4 Denver 2-Sacramento 572.60 601.23 200.41
5 London 1-Evansville 544.16 571.38 190.46
6 Windy City 2-Evansville 514.34 540.09 180.03
7 Philly 3-Charleston 495.44 520.20 173.40
8 Rocky Mtn. 3-SLC 479.44 503.40 167.80
9 Texas 3-Evansville 469.70 493.44 164.48
10 Angel City 2-SLC 465.20 488.46 162.82
11 Victoria 2-Charleston 464.91 488.13 162.71
12 Jacksonville 4-Evansville 434.01 455.73 151.91
13 Minnesota 3-Sacramento 429.65 451.14 150.38
14 Tampa 5-Sacramento 429.31 1 459.32 114.83
15 Montreal 5-SLC 411.47 2 453.16 113.29
16 Atlanta 4-Charleston 409.54 -2 430.02 143.34
17 Rat City 4-Sacramento 397.05 -1 416.91 138.97
18 Terminal City 6-Sacramento 389.50 424.40 106.10
19 Detroit 1-Duluth 370.08 277.56 92.52
20 Arch Rival 6-SLC 358.03 1 384.04 96.01
21 Madison 5-Charleston 347.74 1 363.56 90.89
22 Charm City 4-SLC 341.40 -2 358.47 119.49
23 Ohio 9-Evansville 331.07 281.04 93.68
24 Boston 7-Charleston 329.13 352.56 88.14
25 Steel City 8-Evansville 318.69 1 310.68 77.67
26 Arizona 5-Evansville 314.28 -1 334.96 83.74
27 St. Chux 3-Duluth 302.69 1 227.01 75.67
28 Naptown 6-Charleston 300.67 -1 323.28 80.82
29 Jet City 9-Charleston 289.29 1 216.96 72.32
30 Wasatch 8-SLC 288.27 -1 310.56 77.64
31 Nashville 6-Evansville 285.55 299.36 74.84
32 Santa Cruz 7-Sacramento 285.11 299.80 74.95
33 Rideau Valley 1-Kitchener 280.63 1 210.48 70.16
34 Toronto 7-Evansville 280.18 -1 297.68 74.42
35 Treasure Valley 5-Duluth 280.18 4 189.88 47.47
36 Houston 10-Evansville 274.80 -1 206.10 68.70
37 OK Victory 10-SLC 273.55 -1 205.17 68.39
38 SoCal 10-Charleston 271.84 -1 203.91 67.97
39 Bear City 2-Kitchener 265.17 1 241.88 60.47
40 Queen City 5-Kitchener 263.11 1 139.44 46.48
41 No Coast 7-SLC 261.77 -3 276.68 69.17
42 Chicago Outfit 7-Kitchener 256.70 3 178.72 44.68
43 Tri-City 9-SLC 246.87 -1 185.16 61.72
44 Sin City 2-Duluth 246.49 -1 184.89 61.63
45 Gold Coast 4-Kitchener 242.63 2 219.12 54.78
46 Omaha 9-Duluth 241.90 4 108.84 36.28
47 Kansas City 8-Sacramento 241.36 -3 245.56 61.39
48 Killamazoo 3-Kitchener 239.16 -2 179.37 59.79
49 Demolition City 8-Kitchener 238.59 2 143.12 35.78
50 New Hampshire 9-Sacramento 234.68 -2 175.98 58.66
51 Suburbia 6-Duluth 233.30 2 139.96 34.99
52 DC 6-Kitchener 230.78 126.09 42.03
53 Columbia 8-Charleston 230.57 -4 242.40 60.60
54 Boulder County 9-Kitchener 224.27 119.19 39.73
55 Grand Raggidy 10-Kitchener 216.70 1 97.50 32.50
56 Tucson 10-Duluth 215.96 -1 121.80 40.60
57 Brewcity 7-Duluth 210.78 147.40 36.85
58 Brandywine 8-Duluth 198.70 129.88 32.47
59 Big Easy 4-Duluth 178.23 133.68 44.56
60 Blue Ridge 10-Sacramento 163.33 122.52 40.84

So as I mentioned the rankings really don’t tell the story here, the actual points do.  Grand Raggidy made the 2014 Playoffs with a 193.95 average, 4 teams averaged more than that in just playoff modifier points.  Do teams really that many bonus points?  My personal belief is no and I will go into so much more depth on that at a later date.  But for our purposes right here I want to leave you with one more chart.

Rankings Playoff Spread Non-Playoff Modifier Spread
1-10 237.54 175.96
11-20 166.73 106.88
21-30 92.43 59.47
31-40 34.75 22.44
41-50 31.41 27.09
51-60 70.20 69.97
1-40 539.92 378.05
41-60 105.42 98.44

So as you can see the advantages just get enormous at the top of the rankings.  As I mentioned above, the actual ranking themselves didn’t change at the top much, but wow did the actual WFTDA points increase.  I believe this could have very dire consequences if something isn’t done about this.  The top teams are just going to keep getting more and more points, then keep playing each other which will result in just more point totals and we will then see very little movement from year to year in the rankings.  I will show you all the math behind this theory when I do my large Playoff Modifier analysis, but in my opinion a lack of movement in rankings is not a good thing for WFTDA or any sport.  Top heavy leagues tend to struggle, and if you make it so the top separates from the pack too much how long before they completely break away (that is a topic for another day, but yes I believe there should be more defined divisions similar to European soccer leagues).  Ok, Im struggling to stay on topic for tonight, but stay tuned as not this week but next when I release my weekly rankings I will include a non-Playoff Modifier Rankings along side the regular rankings to show how much the 2014 non-playoff teams are at such a disadvantage when trying to qualify for the 2015 Playoffs.

2014 WFTDA Playoff Points Breakdown

Here we sit, 60 teams entered and 16 remain.  12 teams still have a shot at lifting the Hydra at the end of all of this, but lets take a step back (or forward) and see how the points all shook out after the 6 playoff weekends.  As a reminder, all of my numbers come from the most recently released WFTDA rankings.

Playoff Rank Team Playoff Finish Weekend Average # of bouts
1 Bay Area 1-SLC 865.56 3
2 Rose City 1-Charleston 841.50 3
3 Gotham 1-Sacramento 831.60 3
4 Denver 2-Sacramento 773.01 3
5 London 1-Evansville 734.62 3
6 Windy City 2-Evansville 694.37 3
7 Philly 3-Charleston 668.84 3
8 Rocky Mtn. 3-SLC 647.24 3
9 Texas 3-Evansville 634.18 3
10 Angel City 2-SLC 628.02 3
11 Victoria 2-Charleston 627.62 3
12 Jacksonville 4-Evansville 585.92 3
13 Minnesota 3-Sacramento 580.03 3
14 Atlanta 4-Charleston 552.88 3
15 Tampa 5-Sacramento 544.14 4
16 Rat City 4-Sacramento 536.02 3
17 Montreal 5-SLC 524.76 4
18 Terminal City 6-Sacramento 495.60 4
19 Detroit 1-Duluth 462.60 3
20 Charm City 4-SLC 460.89 3
21 Arch Rival 6-SLC 454.04 4
22 Madison 5-Charleston 438.63 4
23 Ohio 9-Evansville 424.75 3
24 Boston 7-Charleston 417.27 4
25 Arizona 5-Evansville 398.02 4
26 Steel City 8-Evansville 396.36 4
27 Santa Cruz 7-Sacramento 384.90 4
28 Naptown 6-Charleston 381.49 4
29 St. Chux 3-Duluth 378.36 3
30 Wasatch 8-SLC 365.91 4
31 Jet City 9-Charleston 361.61 3
32 Nashville 6-Evansville 360.39 4
33 Toronto 7-Evansville 354.60 4
34 Rideau Valley 1-Kitchener 350.79 3
35 Houston 10-Evansville 343.50 3
36 OK Victory 10-SLC 341.94 3
37 SoCal 10-Charleston 339.81 3
38 No Coast 7-SLC 330.94 4
39 Treasure Valley 5-Duluth 327.65 4
40 Bear City 2-Kitchener 325.64 4
41 Queen City 5-Kitchener 309.59 3
42 Tri-City 9-SLC 308.59 3
43 Sin City 2-Duluth 308.12 3
44 Kansas City 8-Sacramento 302.75 4
45 Chicago Outfit 7-Kitchener 301.38 4
46 Killamazoo 3-Kitchener 298.95 3
47 Gold Coast 4-Kitchener 297.41 4
48 New Hampshire 9-Sacramento 293.34 3
49 Columbia 8-Charleston 291.17 4
50 Omaha 9-Duluth 278.18 3
51 Demolition City 8-Kitchener 274.37 4
52 DC 6-Kitchener 272.81 3
53 Suburbia 6-Duluth 268.29 4
54 Boulder County 9-Kitchener 264.00 3
55 Tucson 10-Duluth 256.56 3
56 Grand Raggidy 10-Kitchener 249.20 3
57 Brewcity 7-Duluth 247.63 4
58 Brandywine 8-Duluth 231.17 4
59 Big Easy 4-Duluth 222.79 3
60 Blue Ridge 10-Sacramento 204.17 3

Hmmm, a ranking without Gotham on the top?  Is that possible?  Sure is, as both Bay Area and Rose City had higher points scoring weekends than Gotham.  Rose City used the 1,000+ points they took from Victoria (who slotted in all the way down at #11) and used that to secure their 2nd place ranking.  Bay Area on the other hand used just consistent domination all weekend to secure the #1 spot.  Their bouts against Charm City and Angel City were the 2nd and 3rd highest scoring bouts of the playoffs at 998.19 and 916.58 respectively.  For perspective, Gotham’s highest point total was 870.35 and London’s was 761.47.  Could that make Bay Area a favorite heading in to Champs?  I still believe that until the current champs lose they are the favorite, but it sure made me happy to see them get drawn to opposite sides of the bracket.  Which leads to another questions, if all of the playoffs are based on rankings up to this point then why is there a random draw for Champs seeding.  Shouldn’t the true #1 seed (Gotham) continue to have the easiest route to the finals, which would mean facing the #4 seed (Rose City)?  Just seems weird to me, and could potentially rob WFTDA of having the two best teams facing in the finals.

But as usual I digressed.  There were some other very interesting tidbits when I tear apart the rankings.  Blue Ridge not only had the worst D1 Playoff of any of the teams, but they had the lowest points average of any of the 60 teams in D1 or D2.  Meanwhile we knew how dominate Detroit was, and points wise they came in at #19.  That was good enough to come in ahead of the 4th place finisher from Salt Lake City, Charm City.  And last tidbit of the night, the 9th place finishers had an average ranking of 36th on the above chart, 8th place finishers average ranking was 37th.  This just shows that winning before the 9th Place Bout didn’t really lead to having a better weekend than losing twice right away and taking 9th.  Heck, Ohio used those results to finish 9th in Evansville, but take away a #23 ranking.

So whats next you may ask.  Later this week I will release how these rankings would look without the Playoff Modifiers in place.  I’m extremely curious to see how the D2 teams move up once all the bouts are treated equally, then with next weeks rankings I will also release a 2015 Playoff Ranking if the Playoff Modifier didn’t exist.

Stay posted and thank you all again for your support.

2015 WFTDA Playoffs Rankings – Week 14

Welcome back to the latest 2015 Weekly rankings.  As we are now down to 12 (16 kinda) teams left playing in the 2014 Season, it is time for teams to fully begin preparing for the 2015 Playoffs.  If the playoffs were to start today, 58 of the 60 teams that just competed in the D1 and D2 Playoffs would be returning.  Big Easy and Blue Ridge are on the outside looking in, but they will have plenty of time to make it back into the Top 60.  The two teams currently on the inside who missed the 2014 Playoffs are a very impressive Dallas squad, who has just been on fire lately, and Calgary who is looking to bring even more teams from Canada into the WFTDA Playoffs.  Later on this week I will release a comparison to these rankings if Playoff Modifiers did not exist.  That shouldn’t make a huge difference at the top, but that 40-60 range could see major shake ups.

Now in other Playoff Ranking news, we have a new high scoring bout.  Rose City for their 236-96 win over Victoria is the first team to crack the 1,000 point WFTDA bout.  They earned 1,039.29 points for their effort (769.84 points and then 269.45 Playoff Modifier points).  In this one bout the Playoff Modifier points earned would be enough to be ranked 51st in the 2015 Rankings or to have ranked 31st in the 2014 Rankings.

I will get more into this in a future blog, but I feel that these Playoff Modifiers are going to have a negative effect on the overall rankings as the top teams Weights and Scores will just keep climbing uncontrollably and will make it very difficult for up and coming teams to climb the ranks.  Don’t worry I will have plenty of charts and graphs to support this.  But I digressed, here are the weekly rankings.

Rank Team Score Weekly Change
1 Gotham 860.60 0
2 Rose City 719.44 5
3 Bay Area 665.77 -1
4 Victoria 627.62 *NEW*
5 Philly 620.74 9
6 Windy City 616.56 -3
7 London 603.64 -3
8 Texas 603.28 -3
9 Denver 598.14 -3
10 Angel City 582.01 -2
11 Rocky Mtn 549.56 -2
12 Tampa 544.14 -2
13 Jacksonville 542.55 -2
14 Atlanta 530.47 -1
15 Minnesota 519.91 -3
16 Rat City 466.79 -1
17 Montreal 448.89 -1
18 Terminal City 441.63 -1
19 Arch Rival 440.22 -1
20 Charm City 428.52 -1
21 Madison 420.65 5
22 Boston 417.27 *NEW*
23 Steel City 409.59 -3
24 Arizona 398.02 -3
25 Santa Cruz 384.90 -3
26 St. Chux 378.36 -3
27 Ohio 376.37 -3
28 Detroit 361.22 -3
29 Wasatch 346.92 -2
30 Jet City 346.09 9
31 Toronto 341.59 -3
32 Nashville 339.92 -3
33 SoCal 339.81 *NEW*
34 Dallas 334.42 -4
35 Naptown 332.29 20
36 Treasure Valley 327.65 -5
37 Bear City 325.64 -5
38 No Coast 321.60 -5
39 Sin City 314.52 -5
40 Tri-City 313.19 -5
41 Kansas City 307.91 -4
42 Rideau Valley 302.76 -4
43 Queen City 298.37 -3
44 Houston 298.16 -3
45 Columbia 295.50 -9
46 New Hampshire 293.34 -4
47 OK Victory 285.68 -4
48 Chicago Outfit 279.93 -4
49 Omaha 278.18 -4
50 Demolition City 271.03 -4
51 Boulder County 264.00 -4
52 Calgary 260.06 -4
53 Suburbia 256.82 -4
54 Tucson 256.56 -4
55 Brewcity 254.51 -4
56 Gold Coast 248.44 -4
57 Grand Raggidy 243.29 -4
58 Killamazoo 241.18 -4
59 Brandywine 231.17 -3
60 DC 228.20 -3
61 Big Easy 221.17 -3
62 Ithaca 221.14 -3
63 Charlottesville 219.12 -3
64 Charlotte 217.81 -3
65 Blue Ridge 210.25 -3
66 Old Capitol 207.96 -3
67 Quad City 204.69 -3
68 Alamo City 203.64 -3
69 Connecticut 195.20 *NEW*
70 North Star 185.86 -4
71 Twin City 175.57 -4
72 Cincinnati 172.72 -4
73 Cape Fear 169.97 -4
74 South Bend 165.90 -4
75 Carolina 160.34 -3
76 Emerald City 157.39 -3
77 NEO 154.66 -3
78 Ann Arbor 149.00 -3
79 Green Mt 147.70 -8
80 Pikes Peak 147.59 -4
81 Dutchland 147.54 *NEW*
82 Diamond Divas 143.35 -5
83 Lowcountry 142.60 -5
84 Richland County 141.84 -5
85 Cherry City 141.47 -5
86 Salisbury 139.70 -5
87 Sioux City 139.15 -5
88 Vette City 138.12 -5
89 San Fernando 137.43 *NEW*
90 Lansing 134.45 -6
91 West Texas 131.12 -5
92 Derby City 129.60 -5
93 Magnolia 129.42 -5
94 Tallahassee 128.72 24
95 Burning River 128.21 -6
96 Ft. Myers 124.01 -6
97 Crossroads City 122.13 -12
98 Hellions 119.92 -6
99 Cedar Rapids 119.42 -6
100 Cen-Tex 119.14 -6

Next up will be a complete playoff recap and a synopsis of how the playoff modifier is affecting the 2015 Playoffs already.

Here’s to the FUTURE!!!

So I know this hasn’t been the best week for me and making sure you all had your information, but I promise you there will be plenty of good things to come over the next few weeks.  I will continue to do my weekly rankings, but with the WFTDA Playoffs now going to be behind us I will be able to devote some time to the bigger projects that I’ve started but haven’t been able to complete.  So not a lot new here, but here is a list of upcoming blogs (you could easily consider some of these to be essays, and some will be multiple parts)(in no particular order):

  1.  Complete Playoff Recap
  2.  Review of Playoff Modifier Implications
  3.  WFTDA Rankings System Analysis (hint: it works, kind of)
  4.  Alternative Playoff Options (better bouts, cost implications, travel, growth, etc)
  5.  Bout Length, i.e. Is 30 minute halves really necessary?  (This I cant wait to dive into the numbers from a game play perspective, but its more than that.  If WFTDA went to 20 minute halves that means an entire bout could be completed in under an hour, and that would be much more TV friendly if WFTDA is looking to get something on ESPN, FoxSports, NBCSports (they aired team cross-fit competitions for crying out loud).
  6. Reader Suggestions (keep them coming and I will gladly do what I can)
  7. Regionalization (yes I made that word up, but you all know what I mean)

So there are just a few of the bigger ones.  I hope this leads to some great discussions in the future.  Thanks for sticking with me thru the move to WordPress, it has made things so much easier on my end and hopefully that will lead to me being able to provide you with more and better analysis.  Until the next time.

I’m Back!!!!

So here we are with a brand new site, but the same old good Derby Math.  I will be coming to you live from my new address at https://derbymath.wordpress.com.  The formatting should be much more friendly for both you and me, which means more in depth content presented in ways we all can understand.  For this first post I’ll share the updated 2015 Rankings from last week to give you a sneak peak of what is to come.

Week 13 – 2015 Playoff Rankings

Rank Team Score Weekly Change
1 Gotham 860.60 0
2 Bay Area 665.77 5
3 Windy City 616.56 -1
4 London 603.64 -1
5 Texas 603.28 -1
6 Denver 598.14 -1
7 Rose City 597.38 -1
8 Angel City 582.01 3
9 Rocky Mtn 549.56 9
10 Tampa 544.14 -2
11 Jacksonville 542.55 -2
12 Minnesota 519.91 -2
13 Atlanta 496.85 -1
14 Philly 476.43 -1
15 Rat City 466.79 -1
16 Montreal 448.89 10
17 Terminal City 441.63 -2
18 Arch Rival 440.22 2
19 Charm City 428.52 -2
20 Steel City 409.59 -4
21 Arizona 398.02 -2
22 Santa Cruz 384.90 -1
23 St. Chux 378.36 -1
24 Ohio 376.37 -1
25 Detroit 361.22 -1
26 Madison 348.73 -1
27 Wasatch 346.92 18
28 Toronto 341.59 -1
29 Nashville 339.92 -1
30 Dallas 334.42 -1
31 Treasure Valley 327.65 -1
32 Bear City 325.64 0
33 No Coast 321.60 3
34 Sin City 314.52 -1
35 Tri-City 313.19 -4
36 Columbia 312.82 -2
37 Kansas City 307.91 -2
38 Rideau Valley 302.76 -1
39 Jet City 299.52 -1
40 Queen City 298.37 -1
41 Houston 298.16 -1
42 New Hampshire 293.34 -1
43 OK Victory 285.68 3
44 Chicago Outfit 279.93 -2
45 Omaha 278.18 -2
46 Demolition City 271.03 -2
47 Boulder County 264.00 0
48 Calgary 260.06 0
49 Suburbia 256.82 0
50 Tucson 256.56 0
51 Brewcity 254.51 0
52 Gold Coast 248.44 0
53 Grand Raggidy 243.29 0
54 Killamazoo 241.18 0
55 Naptown 233.88 0
56 Brandywine 231.17 0
57 DC 228.20 0
58 Big Easy 221.17 0
59 Ithaca 221.14 0
60 Charlottesville 219.12 0
61 Charlotte 217.81 0
62 Blue Ridge 210.25 0
63 Old Capitol 207.96 0
64 Quad City 204.69 0
65 Alamo City 203.64 0
66 North Star 185.86 0
67 Twin City 175.57 0
68 Cincinnati 172.72 0
69 Cape Fear 169.97 #N/A
70 South Bend 165.90 -1
71 Green Mt 163.40 -1
72 Carolina 160.34 -1
73 Emerald City 157.39 -1
74 NEO 154.66 -1
75 Ann Arbor 149.00 -1
76 Pikes Peak 147.59 -1
77 Diamond Divas 143.35 -1
78 Lowcountry 142.60 -1
79 Richland County 141.84 -1
80 Cherry City 141.47 -1
81 Salisbury 139.70 -1
82 Sioux City 139.15 -1
83 Vette City 138.12 -1
84 Lansing 134.45 0
85 Crossroads City 133.63 0
86 West Texas 131.12 0
87 Derby City 129.60 1
88 Magnolia 129.42 -5
89 Burning River 128.21 0
90 Ft. Myers 124.01 #N/A
91 Mid-State 123.71 -1
92 Hellions 119.92 -1
93 Cedar Rapids 119.42 -1
94 Cen-Tex 119.14 -1
95 Red Stick 114.19 38
96 Assault City 113.60 -2
97 Gem City 113.04 -2
98 Tragic City 110.80 -2
99 Middlesbrough 109.23 9
100 Junction City 109.17 -3

I hope you enjoy the new site and format and I will continue to work to make this as easy and informational as possible for all of you!!!