Non-Playoff Modifier Playoff Rankings

So as promised, here we are with the 2014 Non-Playoff Modifier Playoff Rankings.  As I had predicted, not much actual movement among the teams, especially in the Top 30.  In fact we have to go all the way down to #35 to find Treasure Valley as the first team that had a move of more than 2 spots.  In total only 6 of the 60 teams saw place movements of more than 2 spots (Omaha up 4, Chicago Outfit up 3, Columbia down 4, Kansas City down 3 and No Coast down 3).  Below you will find the rankings, the non-playoff modifier average, the difference from the actual rankings, the total playoff modifier points earned, and the playoff modifier points earned per bout.

Non-Playoff Modifier Rank Team Playoff Finish Non-Playoff Modifier Average Rank Difference Total Playoff Modifier Points Earned Playoff Modifier Points per Bout
1 Bay Area 1-SLC 641.16 673.20 224.40
2 Rose City 1-Charleston 623.33 654.51 218.17
3 Gotham 1-Sacramento 616.02 646.74 215.58
4 Denver 2-Sacramento 572.60 601.23 200.41
5 London 1-Evansville 544.16 571.38 190.46
6 Windy City 2-Evansville 514.34 540.09 180.03
7 Philly 3-Charleston 495.44 520.20 173.40
8 Rocky Mtn. 3-SLC 479.44 503.40 167.80
9 Texas 3-Evansville 469.70 493.44 164.48
10 Angel City 2-SLC 465.20 488.46 162.82
11 Victoria 2-Charleston 464.91 488.13 162.71
12 Jacksonville 4-Evansville 434.01 455.73 151.91
13 Minnesota 3-Sacramento 429.65 451.14 150.38
14 Tampa 5-Sacramento 429.31 1 459.32 114.83
15 Montreal 5-SLC 411.47 2 453.16 113.29
16 Atlanta 4-Charleston 409.54 -2 430.02 143.34
17 Rat City 4-Sacramento 397.05 -1 416.91 138.97
18 Terminal City 6-Sacramento 389.50 424.40 106.10
19 Detroit 1-Duluth 370.08 277.56 92.52
20 Arch Rival 6-SLC 358.03 1 384.04 96.01
21 Madison 5-Charleston 347.74 1 363.56 90.89
22 Charm City 4-SLC 341.40 -2 358.47 119.49
23 Ohio 9-Evansville 331.07 281.04 93.68
24 Boston 7-Charleston 329.13 352.56 88.14
25 Steel City 8-Evansville 318.69 1 310.68 77.67
26 Arizona 5-Evansville 314.28 -1 334.96 83.74
27 St. Chux 3-Duluth 302.69 1 227.01 75.67
28 Naptown 6-Charleston 300.67 -1 323.28 80.82
29 Jet City 9-Charleston 289.29 1 216.96 72.32
30 Wasatch 8-SLC 288.27 -1 310.56 77.64
31 Nashville 6-Evansville 285.55 299.36 74.84
32 Santa Cruz 7-Sacramento 285.11 299.80 74.95
33 Rideau Valley 1-Kitchener 280.63 1 210.48 70.16
34 Toronto 7-Evansville 280.18 -1 297.68 74.42
35 Treasure Valley 5-Duluth 280.18 4 189.88 47.47
36 Houston 10-Evansville 274.80 -1 206.10 68.70
37 OK Victory 10-SLC 273.55 -1 205.17 68.39
38 SoCal 10-Charleston 271.84 -1 203.91 67.97
39 Bear City 2-Kitchener 265.17 1 241.88 60.47
40 Queen City 5-Kitchener 263.11 1 139.44 46.48
41 No Coast 7-SLC 261.77 -3 276.68 69.17
42 Chicago Outfit 7-Kitchener 256.70 3 178.72 44.68
43 Tri-City 9-SLC 246.87 -1 185.16 61.72
44 Sin City 2-Duluth 246.49 -1 184.89 61.63
45 Gold Coast 4-Kitchener 242.63 2 219.12 54.78
46 Omaha 9-Duluth 241.90 4 108.84 36.28
47 Kansas City 8-Sacramento 241.36 -3 245.56 61.39
48 Killamazoo 3-Kitchener 239.16 -2 179.37 59.79
49 Demolition City 8-Kitchener 238.59 2 143.12 35.78
50 New Hampshire 9-Sacramento 234.68 -2 175.98 58.66
51 Suburbia 6-Duluth 233.30 2 139.96 34.99
52 DC 6-Kitchener 230.78 126.09 42.03
53 Columbia 8-Charleston 230.57 -4 242.40 60.60
54 Boulder County 9-Kitchener 224.27 119.19 39.73
55 Grand Raggidy 10-Kitchener 216.70 1 97.50 32.50
56 Tucson 10-Duluth 215.96 -1 121.80 40.60
57 Brewcity 7-Duluth 210.78 147.40 36.85
58 Brandywine 8-Duluth 198.70 129.88 32.47
59 Big Easy 4-Duluth 178.23 133.68 44.56
60 Blue Ridge 10-Sacramento 163.33 122.52 40.84

So as I mentioned the rankings really don’t tell the story here, the actual points do.  Grand Raggidy made the 2014 Playoffs with a 193.95 average, 4 teams averaged more than that in just playoff modifier points.  Do teams really that many bonus points?  My personal belief is no and I will go into so much more depth on that at a later date.  But for our purposes right here I want to leave you with one more chart.

Rankings Playoff Spread Non-Playoff Modifier Spread
1-10 237.54 175.96
11-20 166.73 106.88
21-30 92.43 59.47
31-40 34.75 22.44
41-50 31.41 27.09
51-60 70.20 69.97
1-40 539.92 378.05
41-60 105.42 98.44

So as you can see the advantages just get enormous at the top of the rankings.  As I mentioned above, the actual ranking themselves didn’t change at the top much, but wow did the actual WFTDA points increase.  I believe this could have very dire consequences if something isn’t done about this.  The top teams are just going to keep getting more and more points, then keep playing each other which will result in just more point totals and we will then see very little movement from year to year in the rankings.  I will show you all the math behind this theory when I do my large Playoff Modifier analysis, but in my opinion a lack of movement in rankings is not a good thing for WFTDA or any sport.  Top heavy leagues tend to struggle, and if you make it so the top separates from the pack too much how long before they completely break away (that is a topic for another day, but yes I believe there should be more defined divisions similar to European soccer leagues).  Ok, Im struggling to stay on topic for tonight, but stay tuned as not this week but next when I release my weekly rankings I will include a non-Playoff Modifier Rankings along side the regular rankings to show how much the 2014 non-playoff teams are at such a disadvantage when trying to qualify for the 2015 Playoffs.

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One comment

  1. I’m much more sanguine about the ranking situation. In my experience, economics, reputation, opportunity and determination determine which teams play one another, not ranking, and it’s always been that way. In my conversations with skaters, who actually take an interest in these things, they say the current system is too unstable, that teams jump up and down the rankings seemingly at random. What’s Detroit doing in D2, for example? And Toronto at 12th earlier this year? If you look at FTS over time, teams placements are much more stable and in my opinion more realistic. While I don’t find the current system as good as other systems, I believe it can get most of the teams into the tournaments they should be in. As for top heavy leagues they always threaten to break away, but never do. And I think if they did break away that would be good for roller derby too.

    I’m very much interest in your ideas about how soccer’s experience can benefit WFTDA.

    Like

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