2015 Predictions

Hello again everyone.  Sorry for the absence, not gonna lie but its been a bit hard to focus on derby with no bouts going on and the balmy weather we are having up here in Wisconsin right now.  But I have to put my writing hat back on again soon with the Brewcity Home Season starting up and I need to get ready for my bout recaps.  I highly encourage all of you to check them out at http://www.brewcitybruisers.com after each of their bouts.  It really is a great amount of fun and I feel very fortunate that they let me express my take on their home bouts the way I do.  They had one condition though, I needed a new derby name.

Well in fairness to them, going by Coach Chad while I am no longer a coach does seem a bit odd.  (Technically I’m still coaching a U-13 baseball team this year, but thats besides the fact)  So here I am thinking how the heck am I going to come up with a new derby name that fits me.  Give me spreadsheets and numbers and I am in my element and can make them say whatever I want, make me be creative and the results are just OUCH!!!  But, I do have a good starting point.  I have had 4 very solid nicknames throughout my life and I’m just going to go with one of them.  The first was my high school nickname of Big Dog.  Considering I was a 4’8″ tall, 85 lbs Freshman when I got this may seem a bit ridiculous, but the story isnt all that exciting.  My last name is Robinson, the Milwaukee Bucks just drafted Glenn “Big Dog” Robinson with the #1 pick in the NBA draft, and there you go.  I’m now Big Dog.  The second real nickname came in college when I was know as Sac.  Now this story involves a roommate doing something at a Track dinner and getting the nickname of Pubes.  Someone thought it would be funny to say that Pubes and Sac lived together, I didnt overly object, and for two years I was known as Sac.  After that I have gone by both C-Rob and CRobby, and well those aren’t overly original, but they really just worked for me.  So after much internal debate, Im just going to stick with C-Rob as my new derby name.  Sorry for the tangent there, but that’s the nice part of doing your own blog, you really can type about whatever you want.

But enough of that, on to my 2015 Predictions.  Some will be big, others will be small.  Some were pretty easy to come up with, others are way out there.  Some will be local, but most will be global.  I havent put them in any order other than how they come to me.  I hope you all enjoy and will be curious to revisit these in a year to see how I did.

1.  WFTDA’s 2015 Playoffs will be the last in this current format.  This is one that I have felt for a long time.  After watching all Top 12 seeds advance to Championships this year and seeing that the Non-US presence of top teams is leading to some teams having to make 2 Trans-Atlantic/Trans-Pacific trips in such a short period is eventually going to make this format incredibly difficult and costly.  With costs becoming more and more of an issue (some would argue it has always been an issue and is just getting more publicity now) I just do not see a system that requires teams to make multiple playoff trips in short order lasting very long.

2.  There will be a lot of suggesting/complaining that WFTDA should hold a part of their 2016 Playoffs outside of North America, but it wont happen.  I thought WFTDA did a very good job with WET this year and there is definitely a very good place for non-North American teams.  But as I mentioned a little above, financially it makes more sense to have one or two teams make the trip to North America vs having 8-9 teams traveling overseas.  Out of my current Top 62 (my rankings, not WFTDA’s) only 6 are based outside of North America.  If WFTDA did something where they broke things down and rankings used in January or something were used I could see it as a possibility, but right now I feel many teams would decline such an invitation due to the costs.

3.  WFTDA is going to make a major announcement regarding safety.  This one is really nothing more than a gut reaction.  Right now I would lean towards something related to concussions and standardizing some things around them, but again this is nothing more than a gut feeling.

4.  Gotham will lose a bout, and the world won’t end.  Not knowing Gotham’s schedule makes this a bit harder to predict, but I think between some retirements and teams getting closer to them this is the year it happens.  They are still one of the top teams, see #5, but I believe that as we saw last year there are teams right there with them.

5.  The four #1 seeds will be Gotham, Bay Area, Rose City, and Denver.  Not going out on a huge limb here, but I do believe there are at least 3 teams that will vie for that 4th #1 seed.  Denver, Texas and Victoria will all have a good say in who it is and it will really come down to the teams the schedule, but I just think Denver will get the spot.

6.  Three teams will get to play at home during the 2015 WFTDA Playoffs.  I actually feel pretty comfortable with this one.  I dont think Burning River makes the playoffs this year so they are out.  Detroit will be D1 so they wont play at home either.  Tucson and Omaha may make D2 playoffs, but I just dont see them getting all the way up to D1. That leads Jacksonville, which is pretty easy, and Dallas for D1 playoffs.  I fully expect Dallas to not only make it back to playoffs this year, but skip D2 and go directly to D1.  And finally Minnesota will make Champs and play in front of their home crowd.  So there are the three teams.

7.  At least 10 of the 12 D1 Champs teams will return this year.  I may be going out on a limb a bit, but I think we will see at most 2 new teams.  If I had to pick them, Im going with Jacksonville and Montreal as the 2 new teams.

8.  After seeing 6 teams score 600 or more points in a WFTDA sanctioned bout in 2014, no teams will reach that number in a single bout in 2015.  This is almost just as much a wish as it is a prediction.  There are no winners in a score like this and the WFTDA points awarded to each team is almost never worth it to either team.  As teams get better and knowing competition level this will hopefully be a thing of the past.

9.  More teams will drive to D2 Playoffs than fly this year.  D2 has been dominated by teams in the Midwest as of late and I dont see that changing much this year.  Plus WFTDA did a great job of picking 2 cities that are very centrally located based on the likely teams to participate in these playoffs.

10.  Brewcity Home Season – The Crazy 8’s will lose a bout this year.  With a 9-bout win streak, over 2 seasons, currently going I am going out on a limb and saying they lose one this year.  Last year most of the bouts were not very close, but as Maiden Milwaukee showed in the championship bout (it went into OT for those not familiar with BCB) they can be beat.  The season starts January 17th and if you are in the area please come and check it out.

Well there you go.  I hope you enjoyed my predictions and as teams start playing again the weekly rankings will be coming back.  Best of luck to everyone this season.


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