Final 2014-15 DerbyMath Rankings & Playoff Projections

292 Teams, 1,120 Bout.  Its been a heck of a year.  Now Im sure there were probably a missed bout here or there due to using a manually run FlatTrackStats.com, but it really has all come down to this.  We will have to wait and see but I think a good chunk of my playoff projections are safe.  As I had mentioned in the past I am projecting a margin of error of 4-6 points, but after WFTDA’s latest blog I am actually thinking that may be a bit high and the margin may be closer to 3-4.  As an analyst who spends all day in numbers that is a huge difference.  But I know none of you are here to read about that, lets see how the Seeds are shaping up for the 2015 Playoffs.

All of the D1 #1 Seeds listed I feel are safe.  Denver made a good effort this past weekend to get up there, but I see them solidly as a #2 Seed.  The #2 Seeds get a little interesting as Denver, Bay Area and Texas all are very secure, but the last D2 spot is within the margin of error and could be either Jacksonville or Angel City.  It shouldn’t matter which order they are in as they will likely play each other for a spot at Champs either way.  The rest of the #3 Seeds look safe, as do the #4 Seeds.

The next real spot up in the air is the final #5 Seed as Detroit’s lead over Windy City is within the margin of error.  And there still is the case of Sun State that I mentioned last week as they are a true wild card and could end up anywhere from a 5-9 seed depending on the Weight given to a couple of their bouts this past month against new teams.  The #6 Seeds look safe and that is a very impressive year for Dallas after missing Playoffs last year.

The #7-#10 Seeds look great and I predict that some of those first round bouts will be the bouts of the Playoffs.  Those teams look very evenly matched and I can’t wait to watch them.  The real question is who is going to be #40.  Im predicting Sacred City will take the spot, but you will see that Tri-City is very much in the margin of error.  But I do believe that Sacred CIty will truly get that final D1 spot.  Of course all of this assumes Oly participates this year.

On the D2 side of things, it looks like we are in for two amazing Playoffs again.  There really isnt that one team this year that is just so much better than the rest.  The top team in D2 in my rankings is Tri-City who just lost to Chicago Outfit and beat Brewcity.  But yet in May Brewcity beat Chicago Outfit.  As of right now those are a #1, #4 and #10 Seed.  If anyone tells you who is going to win D2 this year they are lying, or have some secret people in Vegas doing things we dont talk about.

And again it all comes down to who is in, and who is out.  SoCal, as has been mentioned, has not reported any bouts to FTS and will not be participating so that moves Brandywine into the final spot.  Ann Arbor, Bear City and Calgary all played this past weekend with hopes of moving up to that final spot, but none got all the way there.  That being said, Brewcity, Brandywine, Ann Arbor, Bear City, and Calgary (barely) are all within the margin of error.  If Oly participates only 2 of those two teams are in and the other three will have to wait until next season.

So where does Derby Math go from here?  Well Im going to get started on the 2015-16 spreadsheets as those bouts will be starting up soon.  I’ll provide some insight and predictions for each of the playoffs similar to last year when I was still using the Weebly site.  I also think I will do a 2015 Predictions mid-year report pretty soon.  But really it is a huge wait and see on if what I did worked.  I really hope it does, and if so it can be a great tool for teams to help themselves with where they want to end up (the average opponent rankings has already gained some very good discussions).

Rank Team Score # of Bouts Change from last rankings Average Opponent Rank
Current D1 #1 Seeds
1 Gotham 810.97 12 0 11.25
2 Rose City 743.09 16 0 10.69
3 Victoria 647.62 9 0 9.56
4 London 618.24 12 0 11.67
Current D1 #2 Seeds
5 Denver 601.79 19 2 11.84
6 Bay Area 599.29 16 -1 12.63
7 Texas 595.15 13 -1 12.00
8 Jacksonville 551.60 13 0 27.62
Current D1 #3 Seeds
9 Angel City 550.43 14 0 13.79
10 Arch Rival 535.89 16 0 26.73
11 Philly 530.17 11 0 9.45
12 Minnesota 511.13 15 0 12.73
Current D1 #4 Seeds
13 Atlanta 488.12 14 0 12.71
14 Rocky Mtn 465.86 15 0 11.87
15 Rat City 449.94 12 0 22.08
16 Stockholm 444.69 6 0 36.50
Current D1 #5 Seeds
17 Montreal 433.41 16 0 30.19
18 Tampa 420.08 14 0 30.64
19 Charm City 410.42 13 0 22.85
20 Detroit 404.48 20 0 41.65
Current D1 #6 Seeds
21 Windy City 403.14 14 0 16.50
22 Team United 395.59 4 0 39.75
23 Boston 383.52 15 0 27.40
24 Dallas 380.34 13 0 48.54
Current D1 #7 Seeds
25 Helsinki 374.88 9 0 36.67
26 Glasgow 367.47 4 0 60.25
27 Sun State 360.55 5 0 93.67
28 Terminal City 356.67 17 0 23.24
Current D1 #8 Seeds
29 Steel City 356.46 18 0 34.94
30 Crime City 346.72 5 0 79.75
31 Arizona 340.80 17 0 31.47
32 Queen City 336.43 12 0 56.25
Current D1 #9 Seeds
33 Toronto 334.28 15 0 29.53
34 Ohio 331.65 21 0 38.14
35 Madison 330.12 11 0 23.91
36 Pikes Peak 329.32 6 0 80.50
Current D1 #10 Seeds
37 Oly 327.44 3 0 74.00
38 No Coast 325.24 12 0 32.64
39 Charlottesville 323.12 10 0 71.90
40 Sacred City 314.88 11 0 65.91
Current D2 #1 & #2 Seeds
41 Tri-City 312.99 14 0 48.79
42 Rideau Valley 310.56 14 0 51.64
43 Emerald City 310.54 9 0 91.11
44 Nashville 308.61 18 3 40.44
Current D2 #3 & #4 Seeds
45 Kansas City 307.71 14 0 37.79
46 Santa Cruz 307.31 11 0 30.27
47 Columbia 305.59 11 -3 44.64
48 Chicago Outfit 299.68 18 0 54.39
Current D2 #5 & #6 Seeds
49 Treasure Valley 297.60 15 0 63.80
50 Demolition City 297.22 13 0 41.15
51 Naptown 294.40 15 0 32.53
52 Wasatch 292.65 11 0 31.73
Current D2 #7 & #8 Seeds
53 Houston 291.77 20 0 44.74
54 Sac City 289.45 9 0 75.44
55 St. Chux 289.28 12 0 46.92
56 Boulder County 287.81 10 0 68.30
Current D2 #9 & #10 Seeds
57 Jet City 277.28 8 0 37.00
58 OK Victory 276.15 10 0 46.50
59 SoCal 271.84 3 0 26.67
60 Brewcity 271.41 19 0 55.84
61 Brandywine 270.99 14 0 61.50
Outside Looking In
62 Ann Arbor 269.78 19 2 89.16
63 Bear City 269.36 14 0 56.86
64 Calgary 266.72 16 -2 60.31
65 Sin City 264.88 11 0 57.45
66 Tucson 255.67 9 0 69.22
67 Auld Reekie 250.70 5 6 62.80
68 Cincinnati 237.58 11 0 68.09
69 Roc City 236.41 9 -2 61.78
70 Blue Ridge 235.10 12 -1 53.92
71 Des Moines 233.18 2 0 92.50
72 North Star 232.94 14 2 77.00
73 Burning River 232.20 12 -3 106.58
74 Ft. Wayne 230.34 11 -2 57.09
75 Green Mt 228.68 12 0 68.09
76 Carolina 226.43 12 0 84.91
77 Omaha 223.93 10 0 65.60
78 Paradise City 223.93 4 0 26.50
79 Ithaca 221.64 10 1 81.80
80 DC 219.78 17 -1 63.76
81 Killamazoo 218.70 19 3 58.47
82 Grand Raggidy 218.52 15 -1 72.00
83 Old Capitol 216.45 12 -1 62.82
84 Maine 215.81 4 -1 74.00
85 Pirate City 211.01 3 0 94.33
86 Sioux City 210.73 6 2 110.00
87 Suburbia 210.63 15 -1 65.13
88 Big Easy 210.24 10 -1 57.40
89 Twin City 198.89 14 0 76.38
90 Tiger Bay 197.98 6 0 74.17
91 Providence 192.59 10 0 75.80
92 NW Arkansas 190.75 7 1 68.13
93 Dupage 187.33 7 11 135.86
94 Muddy River 185.58 7 0 130.80
95 Memphis 185.55 4 -3 142.75
96 Ft. Myers 185.41 11 -1 91.30
97 Charlotte 184.48 10 0 83.90
98 Fargo 181.95 7 0 136.00
99 Rage City 178.97 9 0 130.57
100 Garden State 178.31 6 0 92.17
101 Gold Coast 177.75 13 0 58.58
102 Lansing 175.22 13 0 98.17
103 Diamond Divas 173.05 7 -7 130.00
104 Junction City 173.01 12 -1 85.40
105 Winnipeg 171.11 7 0 144.60
106 Kallio 169.79 10 0 132.33
107 Nidaros 168.04 8 0 139.00
108 Rainy City (UK) 167.74 14 0 134.91
109 Salisbury 167.00 10 0 133.89
110 Greensboro 163.56 8 0 122.14
111 Shasta 163.19 8 0 136.83
112 Royal City 163.11 6 0 144.40
113 ICT 158.67 12 7 136.20
114 Cherry City 157.01 7 -1 133.50
115 Derby City 155.95 5 -1 169.80
116 San Fernando 154.92 13 -1 133.11
117 Lowcountry 154.14 8 -1 139.88
118 Oklahoma City 149.98 9 -1 162.25
119 Mid-State 146.74 5 -1 161.67
120 Lava City 146.73 9 -1 158.29
121 Leeds 143.94 8 0 150.00
122 Cape Fear 143.68 10 0 147.80
123 North Texas 143.62 8 0 157.14
124 NEO 141.29 9 1 89.56
125 Central NY 140.37 7 1 166.00
126 Connecticut 140.26 11 3 129.55
127 Assault City 139.25 3 27 102.50
128 Canberra 138.73 6 -1 121.50
129 Cornfed 138.55 4 -5 177.50
130 Gem City 138.43 6 0 174.00
131 V Town 137.65 9 0 160.67
132 Hard Knox 137.57 6 6 141.17
133 Granite State 136.65 7 -1 154.00
134 Rainier 135.80 8 -1 140.86
135 Dublin 135.49 5 -1 150.00
136 Red Stick 133.84 8 0 137.50
137 Sydney 133.15 5 0 115.00
138 Middlesbrough 132.68 8 1 161.83
139 Gent 131.88 7 1 149.67
140 Paris 131.59 9 2 158.00
141 Ark River 130.85 5 49 164.40
142 Dutchland 130.04 9 -7 114.22
143 Dark River 129.47 2 0 200.00
144 Forest City 129.01 9 0 148.43
145 Long Island 127.61 4 0 177.25
146 Quad City 127.35 11 -18 101.30
147 Crossroads City 127.15 7 -1 130.00
148 Rock N Roller 126.51 4 NEW 143.67
149 Humboldt 126.26 2 NEW 93.00
150 Central City 125.67 6 1 147.80
151 Duke 125.57 11 -4 130.33
152 Classic City 125.54 7 -4 168.00
153 Acadiana 124.74 3 -4 122.00
154 Mississippi 124.71 5 -4 162.60
155 Harbor City 121.83 9 -3 138.38
156 New Hampshire 121.51 9 -15 55.78
157 Fox Cities 120.38 7 -4 148.33
158 Royal Windsor 119.69 3 -3 131.50
159 Happy Valley 119.31 9 -3 153.67
160 Lehigh Valley 119.26 7 -3 126.57
161 Dub City 119.05 4 -3 146.00
162 Cheyenne 119.01 7 -3 153.67
163 Pueblo 118.90 8 3 152.67
164 Richter City 118.10 3 NEW 114.00
165 MOKAN 117.67 15 5 151.25
166 Chattanooga 117.49 6 -6 158.17
167 FoCo 117.45 10 -6 164.00
168 Ventura 117.33 10 -6 156.11
169 Tragic City 116.82 10 -6 160.60
170 Richland County 116.75 5 -5 140.50
171 Cedar Rapids 116.38 7 -4 159.67
172 Durango 116.30 8 -4 135.80
173 Snake Pit 115.54 7 -4 171.00
174 Tallahassee 115.24 6 -3 94.75
175 Monterey Bay 114.04 6 -11 167.00
176 Sick Town 114.03 1 -3 N/A
177 Cen-Tex 112.92 8 -3 156.00
178 580 112.17 7 NEW 181.33
179 Ark Valley 111.01 4 -7 166.67
180 Central Arkansas 110.69 3 -5 200.00
181 Babe City 109.95 3 -5 127.67
182 Bleeding Heartland 109.32 6 -4 118.50
183 Bay State 109.25 6 8 191.33
184 New Jersey 108.99 4 -5 193.50
185 Fairbanks 108.81 1 -5 N/A
186 Black Rose 108.58 8 -5 141.38
187 Southern Illinois 108.07 5 -5 188.50
188 Hammer City 108.04 8 -3 116.88
189 Hellions 107.63 5 -6 157.50
190 Worchester 107.25 8 -6 200.17
191 Perth 106.94 3 -5 93.00
192 Hartford 106.74 5 -15 142.75
193 Magnolia 106.45 8 -6 194.71
194 Sonoma 105.74 8 -6 167.29
195 Shore Points 104.90 7 -6 211.00
196 Roller Radicals 104.13 1 NEW N/A
197 Dominion 103.35 5 -5 173.50
198 Alamo City 102.97 10 -5 132.78
199 Nottingham 102.43 5 -4 147.33
200 Newcastle 102.36 4 -4 148.50
201 West Coast KOs 101.84 8 -4 169.25
202 Bakersfield 101.37 14 -2 168.45
203 Bellingham 100.65 5 -5 131.00
204 Belfast 100.34 1 NEW N/A
205 Stuttgart Valley 98.25 9 -1 176.83
206 Chippewa Valley 97.83 3 -4 144.00
207 Amsterdam 96.24 4 -8 192.00
208 Mother State 95.99 6 -3 151.33
209 Rock Coast 95.98 10 -3 157.00
210 Nantes 95.80 9 -16 184.20
211 Oslo 94.89 5 -3 162.00
212 Springfield 94.78 6 -5 192.50
213 Dockyard 91.43 2 NEW 136.50
214 Jersey Shore 91.33 8 -5 199.00
215 Albany 91.04 8 -12 161.80
216 Appalachian 89.96 5 -6 153.50
217 Border City 89.27 6 -6 142.75
218 Five 40 89.11 4 -6 201.00
219 Cedar Valley 86.37 9 -6 180.50
220 Port City 84.98 2 5 214.00
221 Little Steel 84.48 8 -7 158.17
222 Silicon Valley 84.21 4 -7 124.50
223 Kokeshi 84.09 3 NEW 217.00
224 Antwerp 83.73 4 30 202.00
225 CoMo 83.02 5 -9 162.25
226 Paper Valley 82.49 1 -9 59.00
227 Metz 82.25 2 -8 164.50
228 Copenhagen 80.75 6 -8 163.50
229 Juneau 80.69 2 -8 187.00
230 West Texas 80.51 7 -8 169.80
231 Soul City 80.34 2 -8 123.00
232 Central Coast 79.71 6 -8 180.20
233 Pensacola 77.44 3 -7 159.50
234 Lincolnshire 77.40 1 -7 N/A
235 South Sea 77.23 4 -7 N/A
236 A’Salt Creek 77.08 5 -7 174.20
237 Heavenly Rollers 76.98 2 NEW 100.50
238 Devil Dog 76.74 6 -8 209.00
239 Rockin Rollers 76.61 5 -38 170.50
240 Castle Rock 76.53 5 -9 151.50
241 Cajun 76.40 4 -9 161.00
242 Dixie 76.35 7 -9 150.33
243 Mason-Dixon 76.13 7 -9 149.86
244 Glass City 76.05 4 -9 180.00
245 Vette City 75.98 9 -9 148.63
246 Diamond State 75.96 5 -9 164.40
247 Slaughterhouse 75.59 6 -9 158.50
248 ROCK 75.50 2 -9 196.00
249 Little City 74.85 4 -31 144.67
250 Savannah 74.79 6 -10 198.33
251 Molly Roger 74.78 1 -10 N/A
252 Sioux Falls 73.82 5 -10 137.25
253 Enid 73.77 9 -10 170.17
254 Sheffield 72.60 1 -9 N/A
255 Confluence 71.80 7 -9 175.17
256 Harrisburg 71.37 3 -9 N/A
257 Circle City 71.20 7 -13 148.14
258 Hudson Valley 70.20 5 -10 152.20
259 Roughneck 69.56 7 -10 167.67
260 South Bend 69.46 2 NEW 153.00
261 Tokyo 67.59 2 NEW N/A
262 Battle Creek 67.45 2 NEW 133.00
263 Paradise 65.56 4 -13 203.00
264 GTARollergirls 65.09 4 -13 170.00
265 Rocktown 64.24 1 -13 189.00
266 Lake City 64.21 2 NEW N/A
267 State College 64.16 3 -14 215.67
268 Gainesville 59.70 3 -13 149.00
269 McLean County 59.42 1 -13 238.00
270 Grand Junction 55.69 1 NEW N/A
271 Western Australia 55.68 2 NEW N/A
272 Vienna 52.94 1 NEW 146.00
273 Renegade 52.76 4 -16 162.00
274 Greenville 50.66 6 -16 164.00
275 Pacific 50.65 1 NEW 233.00
276 Dolly Rockit 49.66 1 NEW N/A
277 Melbourne 49.45 3 -18 114.00
278 River City 49.24 3 -18 186.33
279 Chemical Valley 48.40 4 -18 196.50
280 New River 43.00 1 -18 195.00
281 Wasala 41.19 1 -18 N/A
282 Destroyer Dolls 41.19 1 NEW N/A
283 Apocalypse 41.02 2 -19 N/A
284 Ruhrpott 36.24 1 -19 N/A
285 Mississippi Valley 35.62 3 -19 142.67
286 El Paso 29.35 3 -19 172.00
287 Assassination City 28.22 3 -19 117.50
288 Spindletop 25.08 2 -19 179.50
289 Portneuf 23.82 2 -19 198.50
290 Black N Bluegrass 23.57 3 -19 145.33
291 Southern Oregon 19.87 3 -19 141.00
292 Hub City 13.53 1 -19 175.00
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