So here we are, did Derby Math Rankings actually work? Could you accurately produce rankings on a weekly (or close to weekly) basis to show how teams are really setting up for the upcoming playoffs. Im going to go with a big YES on that one. My goal was to never be perfect, those who have been here thru the whole year know that my goal was to be close and give teams a good idea of what their rankings will be come playoffs. I’ve discussed there will be a margin of error involved due to my methods, and it proved to be slightly higher than I anticipated from a WFTDA Score perspective, but I think you will see that not only was I able to come pretty close with just the Top 40 (which is easier due to the wide range between teams) but you will also see that I was able to be pretty close with most of the Top 100. For those looking for a full breakdown of the playoffs check out the WFTDA website.
But for these purposes I am going to show you exactly how Derby Math did with the Top 100 as projected on July 1st. (For ease purposes I am going to remove Oly from the projections and just move everyone up a spot. And for the record, I had both Oly and SoCal’s rankings correct at the end of the year.)
As you will see below 24 of the 40 D1 teams rankings were perfect and the other 16 were only off by one placing. That isnt too shabby. Better yet is that I correctly picked the correct seed for 31 of the 40 teams. Again that shows just how good the rankings were at being able to give a good idea (again not perfect) of where a team will end up.
D2 was a little harder as there are half as many teams, but I still accurately picked 10 of the 20 seeds correctly. There were a couple of bigger misses as Santa Cruz, Sacred City, Emerald City and Chicago Outfit all came in at 2 away from their projections. With the incredibly tight race that happened at the top of D2 this year that wasnt that unexpected.
And then going down the rest of the Top 100 you will see that a majority of the teams were pretty close to their projections, with the biggest exceptions being teams that played unranked teams right at the end of the season. Without being able to see an initial ranking (or knowing the WFTDA Strength Factor Challenge score) it was a bit hard to get them down just right.
I’m not going to make a huge post tonight as I know you all are incredibly excited for the actual playoffs coming up, but just remember for 2016 that Derby Math can help you get a good projection of where in the overall playoff spectrum your team may fall.
|WFTDA Rank||Team||Derby Math Rank||Change in Rank||Change in Playoff Seed|