WFTDA Playoffs Announced – So does Derby Math Rankings work???

So here we are, did Derby Math Rankings actually work?  Could you accurately produce rankings on a weekly (or close to weekly) basis to show how teams are really setting up for the upcoming playoffs.  Im going to go with a big YES on that one.  My goal was to never be perfect, those who have been here thru the whole year know that my goal was to be close and give teams a good idea of what their rankings will be come playoffs.  I’ve discussed there will be a margin of error involved due to my methods, and it proved to be slightly higher than I anticipated from a WFTDA Score perspective, but I think you will see that not only was I able to come pretty close with just the Top 40 (which is easier due to the wide range between teams) but you will also see that I was able to be pretty close with most of the Top 100.  For those looking for a full breakdown of the playoffs check out the WFTDA website.

But for these purposes I am going to show you exactly how Derby Math did with the Top 100 as projected on July 1st.  (For ease purposes I am going to remove Oly from the projections and just move everyone up a spot.  And for the record, I had both Oly and SoCal’s rankings correct at the end of the year.)

As you will see below 24 of the 40 D1 teams rankings were perfect and the other 16 were only off by one placing.  That isnt too shabby.  Better yet is that I correctly picked the correct seed for 31 of the 40 teams.  Again that shows just how good the rankings were at being able to give a good idea (again not perfect) of where a team will end up.

D2 was a little harder as there are half as many teams, but I still accurately picked 10 of the 20 seeds correctly.  There were a couple of bigger misses as Santa Cruz, Sacred City, Emerald City and Chicago Outfit all came in at 2 away from their projections.  With the incredibly tight race that happened at the top of D2 this year that wasnt that unexpected.

And then going down the rest of the Top 100 you will see that a majority of the teams were pretty close to their projections, with the biggest exceptions being teams that played unranked teams right at the end of the season.  Without being able to see an initial ranking (or knowing the WFTDA Strength Factor Challenge score) it was a bit hard to get them down just right.

I’m not going to make a huge post tonight as I know you all are incredibly excited for the actual playoffs coming up, but just remember for 2016 that Derby Math can help you get a good projection of where in the overall playoff spectrum your team may fall.

WFTDA Rank Team Derby Math Rank Change in Rank Change in Playoff Seed
1 Gotham 1 0 0
2 Rose City 2 0 0
3 Victoria 3 0 0
4 London 4 0 0
5 Denver 5 0 0
6 Bay Area 6 0 0
7 Texas 7 0 0
8 Angel City 9 +1 +1
9 Jacksonville 8 -1 -1
10 Philly 11 +1 0
11 Arch Rival 10 -1 0
12 Minnesota 12 0 0
13 Atlanta 13 0 0
14 Rocky Mtn 14 0 0
15 Rat City 15 0 0
16 Montreal 17 +1 +1
17 Stockholm 16 -1 -1
18 Tampa 18 0 0
19 Charm City 19 0 0
20 Windy City 21 +1 +1
21 Detroit 20 -1 -1
22 Team United 22 0 0
23 Boston 23 0 0
24 Dallas 24 0 0
25 Helsinki 25 0 0
26 Glasgow 26 0 0
27 Terminal City 28 +1 0
28 Sun State 27 -1 0
29 Steel City 29 0 0
30 Crime City 30 0 0
31 Arizona 31 0 0
32 Toronto 33 +1 +1
33 Queen City 32 -1 -1
34 Ohio 34 0 0
35 Madison 35 0 0
36 Pikes Peak 36 0 0
37 Oly 37 0 N/A
38 Charlottesville 39 +1 0
39 No Coast 38 -1 0
40 Tri-City 41 +1 0
41 Rideau Valley 42 +1 +1
42 Santa Cruz 46 +4 +2
43 Nashville 44 +1 +1
44 Sacred City 40 -4 -2
45 Kansas City 45 0 0
46 Columbia 47 +1 0
47 Emerald City 43 -4 -2
48 Naptown 51 +3 +1
49 Treasure Valley 49 0 0
50 Demolition City 50 0 0
51 Wasatch 52 +1 +1
52 Chicago Outfit 48 -4 -2
53 Houston 53 0 0
54 St. Chux 55 +1 0
55 Boulder County 56 +1 +1
56 Sac City 54 -2 -1
57 Jet City 57 0 0
58 OK Victory 58 0 0
59 SoCal 59 0 N/A
60 Brewcity 60 0 0
61 Bear City 63 +2 +1
62 Brandywine 61 -1 0
63 Auld Reekie 67 +4 N/A
64 Ann Arbor 62 -2 -1
65 Calgary 64 -1 N/A
66 Paradise City 78 +12 N/A
67 Sin City 65 -2 N/A
68 Tucson 66 -2 N/A
69 Blue Ridge 70 +1 N/A
70 Des Moines 71 +1 N/A
71 Cincinnati 68 -3 N/A
72 Carolina 76 +4 N/A
73 Roc City 69 -4 N/A
74 Burning River 73 -1 N/A
75 North Star 72 -3 N/A
76 Green Mt. 75 -1 N/A
77 Ft. Wayne 74 -3 N/A
78 DC 80 +2 N/A
79 Omaha 77 -2 N/A
80 Ithaca 79 -1 N/A
81 Grand Raggidy 82 +1 N/A
82 Killamazoo 81 -1 N/A
83 Maine 84 +1 N/A
84 Sioux City 86 +2 N/A
85 Suburbia 87 +2 N/A
86 Big Easy 88 +2 N/A
87 Pirate City 85 -2 N/A
88 Old Capitol 83 -5 N/A
89 Tiger Bay 90 1 N/A
90 Twin City 89 -1 N/A
91 Providence 91 0 N/A
92 Gold Coast 101 +9 N/A
93 NW Arkansas 92 -1 N/A
94 Dupage 93 -1 N/A
95 Memphis 95 0 N/A
96 Diamond Divas 103 +7 N/A
97 Charlotte 97 0 N/A
98 Lansing 102 +4 N/A
99 Garden State 100 +1 N/A
100 Sydney 137 +37 N/A
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